Wisconsin Home Affordability Hits Record-Low Two Months In A Row

Madison, Wis. - The Wisconsin REALTORS® Association (WRA) released its June 2024 Wisconsin Real Estate Report today showingWisconsin affordability hitting record-low levels for the second straight month and 30-year fixed-rate mortgages more than doubling their pre-pandemic levels. However, months of Inventory improved statewide and a need for balance between inflation and recession risks could indicate that possible cuts in short-term rates may be on the horizon. After a 7.4% increase in price over a 12-month period, the new median home price is $327,500.

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Mary Jo Bowe, 2024 Chair of the Board of Directors, Wisconsin REALTORS® Association, hoped for growth in new listings: “The drop in home sales was disappointing, especially given that June is typically our peak month for sales,” she said. “Hopefully the unexpected drop in new listings is an aberration, and we'll see new listings bounce back in July, which will help grow home sales.”

Tom Larson, President & CEO, Wisconsin REALTORS® Association, commented on the current challenges of housing affordability: “This is the second straight month that Wisconsin affordability hit record-low levels due to a combination of rising prices and higher mortgage rates,” he said. “With the 30-year fixed rate at more than twice its pre-pandemic level, it's important to bring those rates down. Lowering the borrowing expense for first-time buyers would lower their financing costs. In addition, it would also help increase supply as existing owners would be more willing to list their homes if right-sizing did not substantially increase their mortgage rates.”

David Clark, Professor Emeritus of Economics and WRA Consultant, looks to a possible cut in short-term rates: “Although the Fed did not lower short-term interest rates to begin stimulating the economy in June, some signs suggest the economy is beginning to slow and cuts are more likely,” he said. “Core CPI inflation continued to improve in June, and Chairman Powell indicated in recent Congressional testimony that the labor market has also cooled to a point similar to pre-pandemic levels. He stated the Fed must balance the inflation risk against the recession risk. This increases the likelihood of a cut in short-term rates at least once this year. Although mortgage rates more closely mirror movements in longer-term rates like the yield on 10-year treasury bonds, they tend to fall when the Fed lowers short-term rates.”

REPORT HIGHLIGHTS:

• After eight straight months of growth in new listings, they fell 10.5% in June 2024 relative to their June 2023 levels. This was one factor contributing to a 10.5% decline in June home sales over the past 12 months and a 7.4% increase in the median price to $327,500 over that same period.
• The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage remained high in June, increasing 21 basis points over last year to 6.92%, which also contributed to weaker home sales. Every region of the state experienced slower sales and higher prices compared to June 2023.
• Still, Wisconsin's growth in home sales was solid at the halfway point of the year. Home sales grew 6.9% compared to the first six months of 2023, and the median price rose 7.1% to $300,000.
• Months of inventory improved statewide to 3.5 months but remain well below the six-month benchmark that signals a balanced market. Rural areas are closest to a balanced market with 4.7 months of supply. The more urbanized areas remain strong seller's markets with smaller micropolitan areas at 3.6 months and larger metropolitan areas at just 3.2 months of available supply.
• Ongoing price pressure and high mortgage rates have taken a toll on affordability in the state, which the WRA began tracking in 2009. Although the statewide median family income is estimated to have grown just over 1% in June compared to June of last year, this was more than offset by the growth in home prices and the modest increase in mortgage rates over the last 12 months. As a result, the Wisconsin Housing Affordability Index fell 8%, hitting a new record low in June.

FULL REPORT

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